By Nathan Eyagu  

SOROTI CITY 

Soroti City, a historical stronghold of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), is set for a fiercely contested election in 2026. The National Resistance Movement (NRM), Uganda’s ruling party, faces a formidable challenge to break the FDC’s dominance in this key region. In addition to the rivalry between the two major political parties, the growing influence of the National Unity Platform (NUP) and the rise of independent candidates further complicate the already competitive race.  

Over the past few years, the FDC has consistently maintained a strong grip on Soroti City. In the 2021 elections, Moses Attan Okia (FDC) won the Soroti City East seat, defeating Herbert Ariko (NRM). However, after a by-election, Ariko managed to reclaim the seat, albeit by a narrow margin, highlighting the city’s entrenched support for the opposition. Similarly, in Soroti City West, Jonathan Ebwalu, an independent candidate who leans towards FDC, secured a victory against NRM’s Calvin Echodu, solidifying his position through grassroots advocacy and a focus on local issues.  

Mike Mukula, the Vice-Chairperson for Eastern Uganda and a key figure in the NRM’s regional leadership, has stepped up efforts to challenge the opposition’s hold. Mukula has been spearheading campaigns aimed at addressing internal party divisions and mobilizing support.

One such campaign was the welcoming of over 500 alleged FDC defectors, a move that was perceived as a significant step towards gaining traction in the city. However, critics have expressed skepticism about the actual impact of these defections on the NRM’s electoral prospects.  

Herbert Ariko’s decision to contest for the Gweri County seat in 2026 has created a vacancy in Soroti City East, leaving the NRM with the task of fielding a new candidate. Several individuals, including those who were involved in the recent by-elections, have expressed interest in running for the seat.

Candidates such as Omoding Herbert Olaboro (OMO) and John Junior Ekutelek, a youth councillor in Soroti, have already emerged as potential contenders. This development offers the NRM an opportunity to recapture the seat, but it also presents risks, as the party will need to find a candidate capable of matching FDC’s grassroots appeal.  

The National Unity Platform (NUP), led by Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine), has also been making strides in the Teso sub-region. Kyagulanyi’s visits to Soroti and Kapelebyong have energized the youth, challenging the political status quo. 

Although NUP’s influence in the region is still in its early stages compared to the established dominance of FDC and NRM, its growing popularity among young voters cannot be overlooked. NUP’s ability to disrupt the electoral race, especially in a highly polarized environment, makes them a party to watch in the coming years.  

Independent candidates are another force to reckon with in Soroti City. These candidates often attract voters who feel disillusioned with party politics and prioritize local issues over national party agendas. Many independent candidates emerge from political parties after being defeated in party primaries, particularly within the NRM, and often end up splitting the vote. Their increasing popularity and local appeal make them formidable contenders, further complicating the electoral dynamics.  

With Herbert Ariko stepping aside, the race for Soroti City East is wide open. The FDC is expected to field a candidate with strong grassroots credentials, with Moses Attan Okia emerging as the main contender. However, the NRM will seek to capitalize on Ariko’s previous support base, with several new candidates expected to compete in the party primaries.

Among these are individuals like Omoding Herbert Olaboro (OMO) and John Junior Ekutelek, both of whom have gained attention in recent elections. In addition to these two parties, NUP and independent candidates may also enter the fray, potentially splitting the vote and complicating the outcome.  

In Soroti City West, the race remains competitive. Incumbent Jonathan Ebwalu, running as an independent candidate with ties to FDC, remains the candidate to beat. The NRM, however, will need to present a charismatic and relatable candidate who can challenge Ebwalu’s dominance.

While the party’s top financier, Calvin Echodu, remains a prominent figure, his previous defeat to Ebwalu, combined with Ebwalu’s increasing support base, could make this a tight contest. FDC will need to rally its supporters to maintain their grip on the seat, especially with the rise of independent candidates and NUP in the region.  

The NRM faces several significant challenges as it seeks to reclaim Soroti City. Soroti City has a long-standing tradition of supporting opposition parties, particularly FDC, making it a tough battleground for the NRM. Many voters in Soroti City have expressed dissatisfaction with government policies, especially in areas like healthcare, education, and youth unemployment. The NRM will need to address these concerns effectively to gain the trust of the electorate. Additionally, internal party divisions and the emergence of independent candidates further weaken the NRM’s position.  

Ethnic dynamics also add complexity to the electoral race. The Iteso, the majority ethnic group in the city, and other minority tribes will require candidates to navigate a complex web of ethnic alliances. In Soroti City West, the Kumam-speaking community holds significant influence, which benefits both Ebwalu and Echodu. Meanwhile, the presence of NUP and independent candidates could fragment the opposition vote, inadvertently benefiting the NRM if the party is organized and strategic.  

The 2026 elections will be a crucial test for the NRM’s ability to challenge FDC’s dominance while contending with the rising influence of NUP and independent candidates. Soroti City voters, who prioritize tangible local development, will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome.  

The NRM’s path to victory is fraught with challenges, including entrenched opposition support, rising dissatisfaction with the status quo, and the emergence of new political forces. FDC, though dominant, will also face its own set of challenges as it tries to navigate the fragmented opposition landscape.  

As Soroti City becomes a microcosm of Uganda’s larger political contest, the 2026 elections promise to be a defining moment for all parties involved. The outcome will likely have far-reaching implications for the political landscape in Uganda, and only time will tell whether the NRM can shift the balance or if the FDC and its allies will maintain their grip on this critical battleground.